Back to Brexit: Negotiating the EU-UK future relationship during the Covid-19 pandemic
With the coronavirus pandemic on our minds, Brexit and the still to be negotiated future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union have more or less slipped off the agenda, although it was merely two and a half months ago that the United Kingdom formally left the European Union as a member state.
With the UK government continuously insisting since its election in December 2019 that a future relationship treaty would be agreed with the EU by the end of 2020 and that the transition phase would not be extended after 31 December 2020, it looked as if we might be facing another cliff edge in UK-EU relations around Christmas of this year. To underline its determination the government included a passage in the EU Withdrawal Agreement Act, which the UK parliament passed early this year, that prevents a minister from agreeing any extension to the transition.
Now only a few months later everything appears to have changed. All over the world governments have to deal with the Covid-19 outbreak and its consequences for their citizens’ lives as well as their societies and economies. So far only one negotiating round between the UK and the EU has taken place, two subsequent negotiating rounds were cancelled – not least because the two lead negotiators Michel Barnier and David Frost had to self-isolate due to Covid-19. Negotiations are no longer possible in person but have to be done remotely. Additionally, the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson had been in intensive care due to a coronavirus infection and has not yet returned to work.
So, the Covid-19 pandemic has already had a significant impact on the future relationship negotiations. What next?
The two lead negotiators have this week agreed to another three virtual rounds of negotiations to be done until June when a high-level conference between the EU and the UK is meant to take stock of the negotiations.
The British government maintains that no extension of the transition phase is necessary and that it would refuse an extension request by the EU, if it made one.
While the UK government wants the transition period to end as soon as possible, the question remains whether a government would really wish to expose its country’s economy to even more friction on top of the severe economic consequences resulting from the Covid-19 crisis.
However, the current Johnson government has so far not shown much flexibility in its post-Brexit-European policy. Its decision not to take part in the EU’s joint procurement scheme for protective equipment and ventilators in the midst of a health crisis might be a case in point.
Those expecting the UK government’s refusal to contemplate an extension of the transition phase to be posturing during the negotiation only for the UK to fold shortly before the June extension deadline ends might be disappointed. The Johnson government is very different from the previous Conservative administration led by Theresa May. The Tory European Research group might be less vocal now, but this is not because it has been silenced. Instead Boris Johnson has managed to purge his parliamentary party (and government) from those sections of the party that either opposed the exit from the European Union altogether or wanted to secure a close future relationship with Britain’s biggest trading partner and closest neighbour. Moreover, having been blessed with a main opposition party led by a weak leader and being highly divided, the Tories under Johnson’s leadership managed to win the December election decisively, which provided the government with a strong position in parliament – something Theresa May’s government never had. Therefore, opposing voices calling for a closer relationship to the EU than a free trade agreement have been marginalised and the government can afford for now to ignore them. Additionally, there are quite a few Brexiteers who would prefer the UK to leave the transition phase without a deal with the European Union anyhow. Thus, they would not welcome an extension. Former Brexit secretary David Davis, for instance, has already argued that the Covid-19 crisis would limit the damage of failing to agree a deal between the EU and the UK because trade would already have been reduced to a minimum. Moreover, some Brexiteers see the argument for an extension of the transition phase as another Remainer plot to thwart Brexit. Yet, the UK has already left the European Union. This will not change, no matter whether the transition phase ends on 31 December 2020 or a year or two later. And the UK will not rejoin the European Union any time soon, if at all.
Looking at current polling which shows that the British public tends to support an extension of the transition phase due to the coronavirus pandemic, it appears probable that the UK government would be able to persuade voters that an extension was a sensible move – particularly if one considers what a free trade agreement might look like in late 2020 in light of the economic implications of the coronavirus pandemic unfolding. According to the EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement the transition phase can only be extended once for either one or two years, thus there is no danger that we will once more enter into a phase of multiple extensions as was the case during the Article 50 negotiations.
Striking a free trade agreement at a later date when countries’ economies have absorbed the effects of the Covid-19 crisis might bring the UK a more favourable outcome in its future relationship with the EU. Yet what the Johnson government has been saying all along is that on Brexit the politics is more important than the economics. Moreover, it might be convenient to blame the negative effects of leaving the EU’s single market and customs union on the impact of the coronavirus pandemic in order to further be able to argue that leaving the European Union was necessary for the United Kingdom to regain its national sovereignty.
Yet when considering Britain’s future relationship with the EU, it might make sense to take more time to negotiate this than on top of a worldwide health crisis with severe economic ramifications – particularly as the future relations do not just concern trade but many other issues that still need to be negotiated. Moreover, the European project will be changed as a result of the coronavirus pandemic and the UK will have to define its relationship to the European Union in this new context. This will take a bit of time.